To improve short-horizon exchange rate forecasts, we employ foreign exchange market risk factors as fundamentals, and Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) models to handle non-linear, time-varying relationships between these fundamentals and exchange rates. Forecasts from the BTGP model...

Many financial decisions, such as portfolio allocation, risk management, option pricing and hedge strategies, are based on forecasts of the conditional variances, covariances and correlations of financial returns. The paper shows an empirical comparison of several methods to predict...

We derive a new matrix statistic for the Hausman test for endogeneity in cross-sectional Instrumental Variables estimation, that incorporates heteroskedasticity in a natural way and does not use a generalized inverse. A Monte Carlo study examines the performance of the statistic for different...

Verl.Beschr.: Der Band liefert eine umfassende Einführung in die Grundprinzipien der Statistik und die zugrundeliegende mathematische Theorie des Zufalls. Die Autoren verdeutlichen den Nutzen dieser Theorie anhand der Anwendungen und legen besonderen Wert auf die mathematisch exakte Einführung...