One of the most popular univariate asymmetric conditional volatility models is the exponential GARCH (or EGARCH) specification. In addition to asymmetry, which captures the different effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative effects of equal magnitude, EGARCH can also...

We evaluate various models' relative performance in forecasting future US output growth and inflation on a monthly basis. Our approach takes into account the possibility that the models' relative performance can be varying over time. We show that the models' relative performance has, in fact,...

We evaluate various economic modelsí relative performance in forecasting future US output growth and inflation on a monthly basis. Our approach takes into account the possibility that the modelsí relative performance can be varying over time. We show that the modelsí relative performance has,...

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide range of window sizes. We show that the tests...

We evaluate various modelsí relative performance in forecasting future US output growth and inflation on a monthly basis. Our approach takes into account the possibility that the modelsí relative performance can be varying over time. We show that the modelsí relative performance has, in fact,...