This paper examines the stability of the Bilson-Fama regression for a panel of 55 developed and developing countries. We find multiple break points for nearly every country in our panel. Subperiod estimates of the slope coefficient show a negative bias during some time periods and a positive...

A theory-consistent CVAR scenario describes a set of testable regularieties one should expect to see in the data if the basic assumptions of the theoretical model are empirically valid. Using this method, the paper demonstrates that all basic assumptions about the shock structure and...

This survey paper discusses the Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive (CVAR) methodology and how it has evolved over the past 30 years. It describes major steps in the econometric development, discusses problems to be solved when confronting theory with the data, and, as a solution, proposes a...

This article was prepared for the Special Issue "Celebrated Econometricians: Katarina Juselius and Søren Johansen" of Econometrics. It is based on material recorded on 30-31 October 2018 in Copenhagen. It explores Katarina Juselius’ research, and discusses inter alia the following issues:...

A theory-consistent CVAR scenario describes a set of testable regularities capturing basic assumptions of the theoretical model. Using this concept, the paper considers a standard model for exchange rate determination with forward-looking expectations and shows that all assumptions about the...