Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are widely used for non-linear filtering purposes. However, the SMC scope encompasses wider applications such as estimating static model parameters so much that it is becoming a serious alternative to Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Not only do SMC...

This paper presents recent developments in model selection and model averaging for parametric and nonparametric models. While there is extensive literature on model selection under parametric settings, we present recently developed results in the context of nonparametric models. In applications,...

We put forward a brand choice model with unobserved heterogeneity that concerns responsiveness to marketing efforts. We introduce two latent segments of households. The first segment is assumed to respond to marketing efforts, while households in the second segment do not do so. Whether a...

There is a one-to-one mapping between the conventional time series parameters of a third-order autoregression and the more interpretable parameters of secular half-life, cyclical half-life and cycle period. The latter parameterization is better suited to interpretation of results using both...

We define a dynamic and self-adjusting mixture of Gaussian Graphical Models to cluster financial returns, and provide a new method for extraction of nonparametric estimates of dynamic alphas (excess return) and betas (to a choice set of explanatory factors) in a multivariate setting. This...

We investigate the direct connection between the uncertainty related to estimated stable ratios of stock prices and risk and return of two pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit arbitrage one. A simulation-based Bayesian procedure is introduced for...

To improve short-horizon exchange rate forecasts, we employ foreign exchange market risk factors as fundamentals, and Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) models to handle non-linear, time-varying relationships between these fundamentals and exchange rates. Forecasts from the BTGP model...

Decision-makers often consult different experts to build reliable forecasts on variables of interest. Combining more opinions and calibrating them to maximize the forecast accuracy is consequently a crucial issue in several economic problems. This paper applies a Bayesian beta mixture model to...

This paper provides a new approach to recover relative entropy measures of contemporaneous dependence from limited information by constructing the most entropic copula (MEC) and its canonical form, namely the most entropic canonical copula (MECC). The MECC can effectively be obtained by...