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A multivariate Kernel approach to forecasting the variance covariance of stock market returns

Becker, Ralf; Clements, Adam; O'Neill, Robert - In: Econometrics : open access journal 6 (2018) 1, pp. 1-27

This paper introduces a multivariate kernel based forecasting tool for the prediction of variance-covariance matrices of stock returns. The method introduced allows for the incorporation of macroeconomic variables into the forecasting process of the matrix without resorting to a decomposition of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011823257

Does the choice of realized covariance measures empirically matter? : a Bayesian density prediction approach

Jin, Xin; Liu, Jia; Yang, Qiao - In: Econometrics : open access journal 9 (2021) 4, pp. 1-22

This paper suggests a new approach to evaluate realized covariance (RCOV) estimators via their predictive power on return density. By jointly modeling returns and RCOV measures under a Bayesian framework, the predictive density of returns and ex-post covariance measures are bridged. The forecast...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012697796

Covariance prediction in large portfolio allocation

Trucíos, Carlos; Zevallos, Mauricio; Hotta, Luiz K.; … - In: Econometrics : open access journal 7 (2019) 2/19, pp. 1-24

Many financial decisions, such as portfolio allocation, risk management, option pricing and hedge strategies, are based on forecasts of the conditional variances, covariances and correlations of financial returns. The paper shows an empirical comparison of several methods to predict...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012025822

Evaluating eigenvector spatial filter corrections for omitted georeferenced variables

Griffith, Daniel A.; Chun, Yongwan - In: Econometrics : open access journal 4 (2016) 2, pp. 1-12

The Ramsey regression equation specification error test (RESET) furnishes a diagnostic for omitted variables in a linear regression model specification (i.e., the null hypothesis is no omitted variables). Integer powers of fitted values from a regression analysis are introduced as additional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506413

When it counts : econometric identification of the basic factor model based on glt structures

Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Hosszejni, Darjus; Lopes, … - In: Econometrics : open access journal 11 (2023) 4, pp. 1-30

Despite the popularity of factor models with simple loading matrices, little attention has been given to formally address the identifiability of these models beyond standard rotation-based identification such as the positive lower triangular (PLT) constraint. To fill this gap, we review the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014507908

Right on target, or is it? : the role of distributional shape in variance targeting

Anatolyev, Stanislav; Khrapov, Stanislav - In: Econometrics : open access journal 3 (2015) 3, pp. 610-632

Estimation of GARCH models can be simplified by augmenting quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimation with variance targeting, which reduces the degree of parameterization and facilitates estimation. We compare the two approaches and investigate, via simulations, how non-normality features of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410634

Multivariate analysis of cryptocurrencies

Candila, Vincenzo - In: Econometrics : open access journal 9 (2021) 3, pp. 1-17

Correlation (DCC) model. In particular, we introduced the Double Asymmetric GARCH–MIDAS model in the DCC framework. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012594128

An exponential endogenous switching regression with correlated random coefficients

Keay, Myoung-Jin - In: Econometrics : open access journal 10 (2022) 1, pp. 1-16

This paper presents a method for estimating the average treatment effects (ATE) of an exponential endogenous switching model where the coefficients of covariates in the structural equation are random and correlated with the binary treatment variable. The estimating equations are derived under...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012804937

Manfred Deistler and the general-dynamic-factor-model approach to the statistical analysis of high-dimensional time series

Hallin, Marc - In: Econometrics : open access journal 10 (2022) 4, pp. 1-9

For more than half a century, Manfred Deistler has been contributing to the construction of the rigorous theoretical foundations of the statistical analysis of time series and more general stochastic processes. Half a century of unremitting activity is not easily summarized in a few pages. In...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013533262

A parsimonious test of constancy of a positive definite correlation matrix in a multivariate time-varying GARCH model

Kang, Jian; Jakobsen, Johan Stax; Silvennoinen, Annastiina - In: Econometrics : open access journal 10 (2022) 3, pp. 1-41

We construct a parsimonious test of constancy of the correlation matrix in the multivariate conditional correlation … deterministically as a function of time. The alternative is a covariance matrix, not a correlation matrix, so the test may be viewed as … a general test of stability of a constant correlation matrix. The size of the test in finite samples is studied by …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459316