This paper proposes a tripartite framework of design, evaluation, and post-evaluation analysis for generating and interpreting economic forecasts. This framework?s value is illustrated by re-examining mean square forecast errors from dynamic models and nonlinearity biases from empirical...

Hoover and Perez (1999) advocate a constructive approach to data mining. The current paper identifies four pejorative senses of data mining and shows how Hoover and Perez?s approach counters each. To assess the benefits of constructive data mining, the current paper applies a data-mining...

This paper provides densities and finite sample critical values for the single-equation error correction statistic for testing cointegration. Graphs and response surfaces summarize extensive Monte Carlo simulations and highlight simple dependencies of the statistic's quantiles on the number of...