In the last few decades, real GDP growth and investment in advanced countries have declined in tandem. This slowdown was not the result of weak demand (there has been no shift along the Okun curve), but of a decline in potential output growth (which has shifted the Okun curve to the left). We...

After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011 - and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may imply for...

All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for...

Economic policy transmission between trade partners has been analyzed over different contexts in the literature. Depending on real or nominal frictions, the results indicate possible beggar-thy-neighbor effects for policies, given international trade, and need for coordinating policies. The...

Given the backdrop of pressing infrastructure needs, this paper argues that higher German public investment would not only stimulate domestic demand in the near term and reduce the current account surplus, but would also raise output over the longer-run as well as generate beneficial regional...

In macroeconomic theory, different approaches discuss the ability of monetary policy to affect real variables in the long run. This research proposes the empirical application of a theoretical model that includes nominal rigidities arising from transaction costs and real rigidities arising from...

The small states of the Asia and Pacific region face unique challenges in raising their growth potential and living standards relative to other small states due to their small populations, geographical isolation and dispersion, narrow export and production bases, exposure to shocks, and heavy...

Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and financial links among countries. This work aims to analyze the possible effects of a potential economic growth downturn or one large negative shock in China, Germany and United...

The global financial crisis was a stark reminder of the importance of cross-country linkages in the global economy. We document growth synchronization across a diverse group of 185 countries covering 7 regions, and pay particular attention to the period around the global financial crisis. A...

We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and...