This Economic Commentary explains a relatively new method of uncovering inflation expectations, real interest rates, and an inflation-risk premium. It provides estimates of expected inflation from one month to 30 years, an estimate of the inflation-risk premium, and a measure of real interest...

A review of the connection between labor resource utilization and the growth/unemployment correlation summarized by Okun's law, showing that the instability of that relationship, particularly over short time horizons, has important implications for monetary policy.

The relationship between the unemployment rate and the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is presumed to be an inflationary bellwether, but recent inflation predictions based on it have not been successful. The authors explore the reasons for this failure and suggest that it...

A review of the theoretical and empirical case for disinflationary economic growth, showing that, contrary to popular wisdom, it is quite possible to have a booming economy without an acceleration in the price level.

The most frequently cited measures of inflation expectations, from TIPS-derived indicators to survey-based estimates like Blue Chip forecasts, have some inherent limitations when it comes to applying them to questions of monetary policy. Recently, researchers developed a model that takes...