comments on the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the International Monetary Conference, Washington, D.C., June 5, 2006

a speech at a Finance Committee luncheon of the Executives' Club of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois

a speech at the Monetary Economics Workshop of the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts

a speech at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Economic Summit, Stanford, California; February 11, 2005

This Economic Commentary explains a relatively new method of uncovering inflation expectations, real interest rates, and an inflation-risk premium. It provides estimates of expected inflation from one month to 30 years, an estimate of the inflation-risk premium, and a measure of real interest...

The most frequently cited measures of inflation expectations, from TIPS-derived indicators to survey-based estimates like Blue Chip forecasts, have some inherent limitations when it comes to applying them to questions of monetary policy. Recently, researchers developed a model that takes...