Economists have been arguing about the connection between unemployment and infl ation for decades. Critics claim that the connection is unreliable and leads policymakers astray, while others argue that the relationship is useful for forecasting. We examine the more direct connections between...

An overview of monetary policy developments in 1993, discussed in the context of the longer-term objective of price stability.

An examination of monetary policy actions before and after 1982, illustrating that prompt federal funds rate increases aimed at maintaining a low inflation environment are associated with subsequent robust economic growth, not with weak growth, as is commonly thought.

Compares two possible explanations of why pay increases continue to be moderate in a vigorous labor market--workers' uncertainty about their jobs and human resource managers' wage-setting behavior--and looks at how each explanation matches the evidence on the timing of inflation and wage changes.

An examination of how to assess the inflationary effects of current monetary policy, reviewing the behavior of a selected measure of core inflation over the past decade and contrasting this pattern with the inflation expectations of both households and professional forecasters, concluding that...

An explanation of P-Star, evaluating its usefulness both as an indicator of potential inflation and as a method of assessing the Federal Reserve's long-term goal of price stability.