This Economic Commentary explains a relatively new method of uncovering inflation expectations, real interest rates, and an inflation-risk premium. It provides estimates of expected inflation from one month to 30 years, an estimate of the inflation-risk premium, and a measure of real interest...

New models of monetary economies, developed in the last 15 years, suggest that traditional measures of the welfare cost of inflation may underestimate the true loss that inflation inflicts on society. According to these models, the cost of 10 percent inflation ranges from 1 to 5 percent of real...

A presentation of the outlook for the economy through 1990 by discussants at the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable meeting at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

A summation of the outlook of 30 economists at the October 20, 1989 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, with major emphasis on the inflation outlook, GNP growth, and capital spending.

A summation of the forecasts of 27 economists made at the January 26, 1990 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, with major emphasis on the inflation outlook, GNP growth, and capital spending.

The most frequently cited measures of inflation expectations, from TIPS-derived indicators to survey-based estimates like Blue Chip forecasts, have some inherent limitations when it comes to applying them to questions of monetary policy. Recently, researchers developed a model that takes...