This Economic Commentary explains a relatively new method of uncovering inflation expectations, real interest rates, and an inflation-risk premium. It provides estimates of expected inflation from one month to 30 years, an estimate of the inflation-risk premium, and a measure of real interest...

The most frequently cited measures of inflation expectations, from TIPS-derived indicators to survey-based estimates like Blue Chip forecasts, have some inherent limitations when it comes to applying them to questions of monetary policy. Recently, researchers developed a model that takes...

New models of monetary economies, developed in the last 15 years, suggest that traditional measures of the welfare cost of inflation may underestimate the true loss that inflation inflicts on society. According to these models, the cost of 10 percent inflation ranges from 1 to 5 percent of real...

A review of the connection between labor resource utilization and the growth/unemployment correlation summarized by Okun's law, showing that the instability of that relationship, particularly over short time horizons, has important implications for monetary policy.

In their efforts to maintain low inflation, policymakers pay little attention to the growth rate of the money supply. Yet many studies have found that money growth and inflation a closely related, at least in the long run. But how long must money growth remain strong before it begins to concern...