A discussion of the relationship between money and output, with emphasis on the possibility that changes in output precede changes in money.

A Taylor rule captures the historical behavior of the federal funds rate better when it also includes a partial-adjustment factor. Typically, the type of partial adjustment added is consistent with the FOMC avoiding large jumps in the level of the funds rate. We add another type of partial...

A standard Taylor rule, which expresses the federal funds rate as a function of inflation, the unemployment gap, and the past federal funds rate, tracks the federal funds rate well over time. We improve the fit by adding employment growth. Then we evaluate the effectiveness of that rule in a new...

There are many possible formulations of the Taylor rule. We consider two that use different measures of economic activity to which the Fed could react, the output gap and the growth rate of GDP, and investigate which captures past movements of the fed funds rate more closely. Looking at these...

This Economic Commentary explains the concerns that are associated with the combination of deflation, low economic activity, and zero nominal interest rates and describes how monetary policy might be conducted in such a situation. We argue that avoiding expectations of deflation is key and that...

An analysis of how three health care reform proposals--universal coverage, mandatory participation in regional health care alliances, and community-rated insurance premiums--would affect Americans' health and pocketbooks.

An exploration of the recent boom in asset-backed lending, or securitization, by both financial institutions and nonbank firms, which the authors contend is more the result of improvements in information technology than a response to the regulatory costs of traditional bank funding.

When inflation-indexed Treasury securities were first introduced, economists hoped that they could be used to measure expected inflation easily. The only difference between securities that were indexed to inflation and those that were not was thought to be the extra compensation regular...

An examination of contagious bank runs and a discussion of how private clearinghouses have protected against widespread bank failures, with the determination that federal deposit insurance may not be necessary to protect against runs; conclusion of February 1 issue.

The Taylor rule, which once was mentioned only in scholarly economics journals, now is popping up regularly in newsmagazines, finance journals, and central bankers' speeches. Does the Fed follow the rule? Should it? This Commentary explains what the Taylor rule is, discusses why it seems to...