An examination of the theoretical impact of an oil shortage on the U.S. economy and the problems that such shortages present for monetary policy.

Many people mistakenly believe that a sharp rise in the price of energy is necessarily inflationary. They fail to understand that energy prices adjust with the demand and supply of energy, whereas inflation responds to the demand and supply of money. This Economic Commentary explains that the...

An examination of how higher-priced oil affects various regions and business sectors, citing evidence that the oil shock accompanying Iraq's invasion of Kuwait will have a smaller impact on the overall U.S. economy than that of previous shocks.

An examination of the possible positive and negative effects that could result from a hypothetical $10 per barrel increase in tariffs on crude oil and refined oil products.

A useful first guess about the future spot price of a commodity is usually found in its current futures price. But it doesn’t work that way when the commodity in question is oil. This Commentary explains why the characteristics of oil, particularly the value it can offer its owner by remaining...

A summation of the September 14, 1990, meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which panelists discussed the economic outlook in light of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait.

This Economic Commentary explains the concerns that are associated with the combination of deflation, low economic activity, and zero nominal interest rates and describes how monetary policy might be conducted in such a situation. We argue that avoiding expectations of deflation is key and that...

This Economic Commentary explains a relatively new method of uncovering inflation expectations, real interest rates, and an inflation-risk premium. It provides estimates of expected inflation from one month to 30 years, an estimate of the inflation-risk premium, and a measure of real interest...

Interest rate swaps have become a popular financial derivative, and market watchers and economists are paying closer attention to them and their associated yield curves. This Commentary gives a brief introduction to swaps and their relation to other interest rates.

Experience has taught economic forecasters to expect a recession when the yield on short-term Treasury securities rises above the yield on longer-term securities—a situation known as a yield-curve inversion. But some economists suspect the yield curve might not be as reliable a predictor of...