Experience has taught economic forecasters to expect a recession when the yield on short-term Treasury securities rises above the yield on longer-term securities—a situation known as a yield-curve inversion. But some economists suspect the yield curve might not be as reliable a predictor of...

Say you need an accurate forecast of future GDP or inflation. What’s your best bet—the economist who was hot last year or the forecaster in the middle? The record indicates it’s tough to consistently beat the median prediction.

Economic forecasts are essential tools for monetary policymakers. But behind the numbers of any given forecast, demand- or supply-side factors could be at play, each requiring very different policy responses. For this reason, explains Sandra Pianalto, the president and chief executive officer of...

A summation of the forecasts of 27 economists made at the January 26, 1990 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, with major emphasis on the inflation outlook, GNP growth, and capital spending.

The FOMC has two objectives: maximizing sustainable economic growth and maintaining price stability. At times-like the past year-these goals appear to be in conflict. This Commentary outlines some economic theory that suggests that in the long run, the FOMC can achieve its two objectives by...

A review of the theoretical and empirical case for disinflationary economic growth, showing that, contrary to popular wisdom, it is quite possible to have a booming economy without an acceleration in the price level.

When the economy slows, monetary policymakers face pressure to deviate from their longer-term goals to address short-term problems. This Commentary argues that the Fed must stay focused on the long term—maintaining the stable purchasing power of the dollar. The Commentary is adapted from a...

A report on the June 14, 1991 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which the consensus forecast was for a mild gain in output growth in the early stages of economic expansion and for a subdued recovery in the consumer spending, housing, and capital goods sectors.

This Commentary is adapted from Ms. Pianalto's remarks at the annual forecast dinner of the Home Builders' Association of Greater Akron, January 27, 1999.

The expansion of the 1990s began with such unexpectedly slow employment growth that commentators called it the “jobless recovery.” As the economy now begins to expand after the most recent recession, will employment follow the typical path of most postwar recoveries, or will it repeat the...