Federal Reserve policymakers have expressed their support for ultimately shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet and returning the composition of its portfolio to only Treasury securities. Policymakers also favor returning to a fed-funds-rate-targeting procedure or something quite similar. While Fed...

A review of the Federal Reserve System's July 1988 Monetary Policy Report to Congress, indicating a decline in the role of monetary aggregates in the policy process and including the Federal Open Market Committee's projection of economic conditions.

Now that the Fed has started to bump up the federal funds rate, the explanation often heard for it is that the Fed is “tightening” monetary policy to keep economic growth in check. But sometimes the Fed needs to move rates just to keep policy from changing.

There has been a remarkable increase in the FOMC’s communication over the last decade. Perhaps the most dramatic change was the inclusion of language indicating the possible direction of future policy. One example is the now famous “considerable-period” language that was inserted in August...

An argument that the Federal Reserve System's current approach to seasonal cycles--pegging the nominal interest rate--could successfully be applied to the business cycle as well.

An argument against using short-term monetary policy to alleviate regional economic shocks and an analysis of how regional economic diversity lends strength to the goal of price stability as the Federal Reserve System's sole monetary policy focus.

A discussion of the February 1989 Humphrey-Hawkins testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan, with suggestions for using the process to better communicate the monetary policy objectives of the Federal Reserve.

To accurately forecast the future rate of inflation, it is imperative to account for inflation’s underlying trend. This is especially important for medium- to long-run forecasts. In this Commentary I demonstrate a simple but powerful technique for incorporating this trend into standard...

In the face of falling house prices, decreasing rates of homeownership, and a glut of vacant homes, the Consumer Price Index’s measure of the cost of owner-occupied housing—owners’ equivalent rent of residence (OER)—has begun to accelerate, rising at an annualized rate of 2.3 percent...

Economists have been arguing about the connection between unemployment and infl ation for decades. Critics claim that the connection is unreliable and leads policymakers astray, while others argue that the relationship is useful for forecasting. We examine the more direct connections between...