During the last recession, credit flows suffered their worst slowdown since World War II. A look at selected credit market measures gives some insight into why the slowdown was so severe. The measures also show that in spite of the size of the shock, credit flows actually recovered extremely...

Although the U.S. poverty rate was the same in 2000 as it was in 1970, the geographic distribution of the poor has become more concentrated. A higher concentration of poor in poor neighborhoods is a concern because it may mean the poor are exposed to fewer opportunities that affect their...

Is uncertainty causing small business owners to behave in ways that are hindering the recovery? That question is at the center of an intense public debate. Though reasonable arguments have been presented on both sides, there is not much empirical evidence to draw on. To contribute some to the...

A discussion of the expectations of 25 economists participating in the Fourth Federal Reserve District's Economic Roundtable, featuring their predictions for the overall economy and their comments on the auto industry, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the prospects for international trade.

In spite of the recent recession, hopes for the New Economy have been little daunted. Surprisingly robust productivity growth during the recent downturn provides compelling new evidence that something truly fundamental is going on. This Commentary argues that advances in information technology,...

Unemployment has remained very high since the end of last recession, leading some economists to suggest that the underlying trend of the unemployment rate must have risen, driving unemployment permanently higher. Using a more accurate method of calculating the underlying trend, I find that the...

The expansion of the 1990s began with such unexpectedly slow employment growth that commentators called it the “jobless recovery.” As the economy now begins to expand after the most recent recession, will employment follow the typical path of most postwar recoveries, or will it repeat the...

We are in the midst of a great transition, from an age in which governments intervened in nearly every facet of economic affairs to one in which market forces not only make political borders transparent to commerce but also shape political policies. This Economic Commentary is adapted from the...

Soaring stock prices continue to pit those who claim that investors are paying too much against those who believe stocks are worth even more. Prices of stocks are determined by people's perceptions of worth, which are themselves based on expectations for the future Although we cannot be sure...

An argument that the sluggishness of the current economic recovery reflects a permanent, structural change in the economy that may not be easily addressed using the standard monetary/fiscal incentives called for in the conventional view of business cycles, and that structural adjustment is a...