A summation of the forecasts of 27 economists made at the January 26, 1990 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, with major emphasis on the inflation outlook, GNP growth, and capital spending.

The FOMC has two objectives: maximizing sustainable economic growth and maintaining price stability. At times-like the past year-these goals appear to be in conflict. This Commentary outlines some economic theory that suggests that in the long run, the FOMC can achieve its two objectives by...

A review of the theoretical and empirical case for disinflationary economic growth, showing that, contrary to popular wisdom, it is quite possible to have a booming economy without an acceleration in the price level.

A summation of the outlook of 30 economists at the October 20, 1989 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, with major emphasis on the inflation outlook, GNP growth, and capital spending.

When the economy slows, monetary policymakers face pressure to deviate from their longer-term goals to address short-term problems. This Commentary argues that the Fed must stay focused on the long term—maintaining the stable purchasing power of the dollar. The Commentary is adapted from a...

A report on the June 14, 1991 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which the consensus forecast was for a mild gain in output growth in the early stages of economic expansion and for a subdued recovery in the consumer spending, housing, and capital goods sectors.

This Commentary is adapted from Ms. Pianalto's remarks at the annual forecast dinner of the Home Builders' Association of Greater Akron, January 27, 1999.

The expansion of the 1990s began with such unexpectedly slow employment growth that commentators called it the “jobless recovery.” As the economy now begins to expand after the most recent recession, will employment follow the typical path of most postwar recoveries, or will it repeat the...

We are in the midst of a great transition, from an age in which governments intervened in nearly every facet of economic affairs to one in which market forces not only make political borders transparent to commerce but also shape political policies. This Economic Commentary is adapted from the...

Soaring stock prices continue to pit those who claim that investors are paying too much against those who believe stocks are worth even more. Prices of stocks are determined by people's perceptions of worth, which are themselves based on expectations for the future Although we cannot be sure...