This chapter reviews methods for selecting empirically relevant predictors from a set of N potentially relevant ones for the purpose of forecasting a scalar time series. First, criterion-based procedures in the conventional case when N is small relative to the sample size, T , are reviewed. Then...

We apply multivariate statistical methods to a large dataset of Singapore’s macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the objective of forecasting business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that three common factors are present in the time series...