Ritschl, Albrecht; Sarferaz, Samad; Uebele, Martin - Department of Economic History, London School of … - 2008
This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 derived from diffusion indices. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model to obtain aggregate and sectoral economic activity indices. We find a remarkable increase in volatility across World War I, which is reversed after...