Most firms achieve perfective progress, incrementally improving commodities or productivity. But technological progress is concentrated in a few firms achieving metamorphic progress: forming or transforming industries with technological breakthroughs (e.g., biotechnology, lasers, semiconductors,...

In science-based industries, world-class scientists drive the most successful firms. These scientists are more likely to follow high-stakes, high-returns R&D strategies instead of more predictable incremental strategies. We develop an options pricing model in which the probability of stock-price...