This paper examines the effects of judgmental adjustments on the rationality of macroeconomic forecasts. Published forecasts based on large-scale models are rarely purely model-based but often include extensive adjustments. Forecasters' adjustments tend to improve forecast accuracy but there is...

This article introduces a new source of survey data, namely the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. The survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and GDP growth and, hence, offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty. We present a simple...

The UK government is introducing new sets of indicators designed to measure the performance of universities. A first wave of indicators was published in December 1999. A performance indicator based on graduate employment outcomes will follow. This paper proposes a method for developing...