Most central banks conduct monetary policy by setting targets for overnight interest rates. During the 1990s, central banks have tended to move these interest rates in small steps without reversing direction quickly, a practice called interest rate smoothing. For example, the majority of Federal...

In this paper we examine the effectiveness in controlling long-run inflation of feedback rules for monetary policy that link changes in a short-term interest rate to an intermediate target for either nominal GDP or M2. We conclude that a rule aimed at controlling the growth rate of nominal GDP...

We develop a simple, quantitative model of the U.S. economy to demonstrate how an "inflation scare " may occur when the Federal Reserve lacks full credibility. In particular, we show that the long-term nominal interest rate may undergo a sudden increase if an adverse movement in the inflation...