, we focus not only on real activity, which has received most attention to date, but also on inflation and its interaction … aspects concern a real activity decline that was unusually long but less unusually deep, and an inflation decline that was … unusually deep but brief; and (3) its real activity and inflation interactions were strongly positive, consistent with an …

forecasts. Finally, we use the same methodology to determine whether the Fed’s forecasts of GDP growth, inflation, and …