In this study, we present new evidence that the postwar U.S. federal budget deficit was explosive in nature. Because of the government's inevitable attempts to reduce high or rapidly growing budget deficits, the deficit may contain a substantial component that periodically collapses, which...

In this paper we examine the effects of monetary policy in a two sector dependent economy. The households consume both tradable and non-tradable goods with inelastic labor supply. The economy produces both goods with labor and capital as inputs. Factors of production are mobile across sectors....

The paper offers an analysis of current account dynamics and its sustainability in Turkey using quarterly data. The focus is on the nonlinear characterization of the long run intertemporal budget constraint and the stationarity tests. Several well-known tests are applied to identify nonlinearity...

This paper aims at studying the sustainability of current accounts in Sub-Saharan Africa and determining whether this sustainability depends on the exchange rate regime. Relying on a formal theoretical framework and recent panel cointegration techniques, our findings show that current accounts...

Chen (2011) [Are current account deficits really sustainable in the G-7 countries? Japan and the World Economy, 23(3), 190–201.] examines whether or not the current account deficits of the US can be characterized by a unit root process with regime switching (MS-ADF). In this paper, we find...

In this paper we examine three types of nonlinearities, i.e., nonlinearity stemming from structural breaks, sign nonlinearity and size nonlinearity, for ten European countries and their importance to current account sustainability. For this purpose, we apply a battery of linear and nonlinear...

A four-dimensional Structural Vector Auto-regression (SVAR) model is applied to investigate the implications of fuel imports and devaluation policy on Fiji's current account deficits and economic growth. The paper finds that short-term deterioration of the current account is partly due to higher...

We build a DSGE model to investigate the transmission of fiscal policy to the real economy in the Czech Republic. Departing from the elements of the Czech National Bank's current g3 forecasting model (Andrle, Hlédik, Kameník, and Vlček, 2009), we introduce a comprehensive fiscal sector...

We test for nonlinear effects of asset prices on the fiscal policy of three major European economies (the UK, Italy and Spain). We model primary government spending and government revenue as time-varying transition probability Markovian processes (TVPMS). We find that while in Italy fiscal...

It is commonly believed that higher budget deficits raise interest rates. However, these crowding out effects of increasing public debt have usually been found to be small or non-existent. One explanation is that on globalised bond markets interest rate differentials are offset due to financial...