This paper provides a summary of the OECD's new global macroeconometric model, including an overview of model structure and a selection of simulations illustrating its main properties. Compared with its predecessors, the new model is more compact and regionally aggregated, but gives more weight...

Opting for structural or reduced form estimation is often hard to justify if one wants to both learn about the structure of the economy and obtain accurate predictions. In this paper, we show that using both structural and reduced form estimates simultaneously can lead to more accurate policy...

We study optimal monetary policy for a small open economy in a model where both inflation and output show persistence. We incorporate habit formation into intertemporal consumption decision and modify the Calvo price setting to include indexation to past inflation. The message conveyed from this...

This article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warning models for...

Macroeconometric models are often criticised for being too complex and difficult to read in theoretical terms. To overcome these difficulties, Hickman suggested the calculation of a model's implicit aggregate demand/supply (AD/AS) structure. The method helps to understand models and their main...

We show that the preferences suggested by Greenwood, Hercowitz and Huffman (GHH), which are quite common in real business cycle (RBC) models of small open economies, are not suited for reproducing both the business cycle and the equity premium facts of a small open economy. We show that by...

This paper investigates the dynamic relations between external factors, domestic macroeconomic factors with sovereign spreads, debt to GDP ratio, etc. in Asian emerging countries. First, we develop a theoretical model that determines the equilibrium debt level, probability of default and...

A four-dimensional Structural Vector Auto-regression (SVAR) model is applied to investigate the implications of fuel imports and devaluation policy on Fiji's current account deficits and economic growth. The paper finds that short-term deterioration of the current account is partly due to higher...

Over the last years, the business cycles of the Spanish economy have been analyzed from different points of view. Under the paradigm of the real business cycles, the standard model has been extended in several dimensions. However, none of them have taken into account the fact that in this...

In this paper, we analyze the link between the macroeconomic developments and the banking credit risk in a particular group of countries – Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy (GIPSI) – recently affected by unfavourable economic and financial conditions.