Showing 1 - 10 of 137
The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more … evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time series methods at a regional level … compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010729816
In this study we investigate the yield curve forecasting performance of Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model (DNS), affine term … variables in forecasting the yield curve. We have reached numbers of important results: 1—Macroeconomic variables are very … useful in forecasting the yield curve. 2—The forecasting performances of the models depend on the period under review. 3 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048868
According to the growing “Google econometrics” literature, Google queries may help predict economic activity. The aim of our paper is to test whether these data can enhance predictions of youth unemployment in France.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048762
improvements in forecasting performance. The overnight returns exhibit some in-sample forecasting power. However, the accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048839
This paper investigates the empirical relevance of structural breaks in forecasting stock return volatility using both … return volatility in South Africa. However, based on the out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that even though there …-horizon forecasting of stock return volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010588219
inflation forecasts. Our forecasting approach is based on extracting the factors from the subcomponents of the CPI at the … disaggregated price data improves forecasting performance. The forecasts of the factor models that extract the information from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010573296
In this paper, we examine the predictive ability, both in-sample and the out-of-sample, for South African stock returns using a number of financial variables, based on monthly data with an in-sample period covering 1990:01 to 1996:12 and the out-of-sample period of 1997:01 to 2010:04. We use the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010573379
-of-sample forecasting ability to examine the significance of each macro variable in explaining the stock returns behaviour. In addition, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010608280
In this paper we present a methodology for measuring income inequality dynamically within a Markov model of income evolution. The proposed methodology requires knowledge of the evolution of the population and the averages and medians of the incomes in a country and allows the computation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010597500
Libya experienced traumatic political and economic upheaval during 2011 arising from an eight-month-long civil war that cost thousands of lives, resulted in major economic dysfunction, destroyed part of the country's infrastructure, almost halted oil production, the country's major source of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010664382