Understanding the impact of exchange rate movements on prices is critical from a policy perspective in order to gauge the appropriate monetary policy response to currency movements. This study assesses the extent to which the movements in exchange rate affect domestic consumer prices in Pakistan...

The paper examines Granger-causality between the producers' and the consumers' price using Australian data within the frequency domain framework. For long run relation, the Johansen and Juselius (1990) maximum likelihood approach to cointegration was utilized. The test is also supplemented by...

Academic literature on central bank communication has tended to treat a central bank's audience as a single group, represented by the financial markets. However, recognising that a central bank's audience is heterogeneous is advantageous for both modelling purposes and effective central bank...

Technical analysis is one of the useful forecasting methods to predict the future stock prices. For professional stock analysts and fund managers, how to select necessary technical indicators to forecast stock trends is important. Traditionally, stock analysts have used linear time series models...

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourism demand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling...

The paper develops a Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR (SOENKDSGE-VAR) model of the South African economy, characterised by incomplete pass-through of exchange rate changes, external habit formation, partial indexation of domestic prices and wages to past inflation, and staggered price...

This paper aims to suggest the best forecasting model for the semiconductor market. A wide range of alternative modern econometric modeling approaches have been implemented, and a large variety of criteria and tests have been employed to assess the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy at various...

This paper considers the process optimal strategies for an enhanced index tracking problem. The investment goals are set to achieve a higher return than the benchmark by setting the portfolio's risk profile identical to the primary index risk factors. Return differences between the index and the...

In this paper we develop an open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model—the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM)—is closely related to studies published by Carabenciov...

This paper introduces a formal method of combining expert and model density forecasts when the sample of past forecasts is unavailable. It works directly with the expert forecast density and endogenously delivers weights for forecast combination, relying on probability rules only. The empirical...