Showing 1 - 10 of 107
Standard VAR and Bayesian VAR models are proven to be reliable tools for modeling and forecasting, yet they are still … specifications of the VAR and BVAR models for the IP and Euribor series provide with better forecasting performance. Interestingly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048862
Most studies on equilibrium exchange rates focus on a limited number of G7 countries. But in a situation of world imbalances, emerging countries can no longer be excluded. The study of all equilibrium exchange rates is delicate. First, the trade model has to be balanced at the aggregate level....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048861
The paper develops a Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR (SOENKDSGE-VAR) model of the South African economy, characterised by incomplete pass-through of exchange rate changes, external habit formation, partial indexation of domestic prices and wages to past inflation, and staggered price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010737983
forecasting US inflation by mixing density forecasts from an autoregressive model and the Survey of Professional Forecasters. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048689
The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more … evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time series methods at a regional level … compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010729816
In this study we investigate the yield curve forecasting performance of Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model (DNS), affine term … variables in forecasting the yield curve. We have reached numbers of important results: 1—Macroeconomic variables are very … useful in forecasting the yield curve. 2—The forecasting performances of the models depend on the period under review. 3 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048868
Understanding the impact of exchange rate movements on prices is critical from a policy perspective in order to gauge the appropriate monetary policy response to currency movements. This study assesses the extent to which the movements in exchange rate affect domestic consumer prices in Pakistan...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048708
This paper provides a set of empirical evidence from five Northern Mediterranean countries that are subject to similar refinery reference prices regarding the relative sensitivity of crude oil prices and exchange rate on (pre-tax) petroleum product prices. The empirical evidence reveals that a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010931042
This paper proposes a hybrid monetary model of the dollar–yen exchange rate that takes into account factors affecting the conventional monetary model's building blocks. In particular, the hybrid monetary model is based on the incorporation of real stock prices to enhance money demand stability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010781957
This paper examines gold's hedging and value-preserving properties against fluctuations in the US dollar. We propose a likelihood ratio test that draws a distinction between hedging and safe-haven characteristics on the basis of the conditional dependence structure under different market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010781970