In order to shed new light on the influence of volume and economic fundamentals on the long-run volatility of the Chinese stock market we follow the methodology introduced by Engle et al. (2009) and Engle and Rangel (2008) to account for the effects of macro fundamentals, and augment it with...

This paper considers the process optimal strategies for an enhanced index tracking problem. The investment goals are set to achieve a higher return than the benchmark by setting the portfolio's risk profile identical to the primary index risk factors. Return differences between the index and the...

We examine both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of South African stock return using macroeconomic variables. We base our analysis on a predictive regression framework, using monthly data covering the in-sample period between 1990:01 and 1996:12, and the out-of sample period commencing...

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of structural breaks in forecasting stock return volatility using both in-sample and out-of-sample tests applied to daily returns of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All Share Index from 07/02/1995 to 08/25/2010. We find evidence of structural...

In this paper, we evaluate the role of using consumer price index (CPI) disaggregated data to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts. Our forecasting approach is based on extracting the factors from the subcomponents of the CPI at the highest degree of disaggregation. The data set contains...

In this paper, we examine the predictive ability, both in-sample and the out-of-sample, for South African stock returns using a number of financial variables, based on monthly data with an in-sample period covering 1990:01 to 1996:12 and the out-of-sample period of 1997:01 to 2010:04. We use the...

Intraday data of 26 German stocks are used to investigate whether the information contained in trading volume and number of trades as well as in various specifications of overnight returns can improve one-step-ahead volatility forecasts. For this purpose, a HAR model of the realized range...

This study examines latent shifts in the conditional volatility and correlation for the U.S. stock and T-bond data using the two-state Markov-switching range-based volatility and correlation models. This paper comes up with clear evidence of volatility regime-switching in stock indices and...

This study constructs a variety of GARCH models with the consideration of the generalized error distribution to analyze the relationship between the cloud cover and stock returns in Taiwan in the whole sample period (1986 to 2007) and in the two sub-sample periods (1986 to 1996 and 1997 to...

The relationship between stock market and economic growth is tested for Portugal (1993–2011), which is a small open economy dependent on bank financing. The relationship between economic growth and bank financing is also appraised. Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling, Granger causality,...