Showing 1 - 10 of 148
Standard VAR and Bayesian VAR models are proven to be reliable tools for modeling and forecasting, yet they are still … specifications of the VAR and BVAR models for the IP and Euribor series provide with better forecasting performance. Interestingly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048862
The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more … evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time series methods at a regional level … compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010729816
In this study we investigate the yield curve forecasting performance of Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model (DNS), affine term … variables in forecasting the yield curve. We have reached numbers of important results: 1—Macroeconomic variables are very … useful in forecasting the yield curve. 2—The forecasting performances of the models depend on the period under review. 3 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048868
We estimate a small DSGE model by full information Bayesian techniques on the basis of Israeli data from 1995 to 2006. The model was first developed and estimated by means of classical GMM in Argov and Elkayam (2010), and since then it has been used at the Bank of Israel for monetary policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010573272
In this paper, we investigate the robustness of the relationship between trade openness and long-run economic growth over the sample period 1960–2000, utilising Bayesian model averaging techniques to account for model uncertainty issues in a systematic manner. We find no evidence that trade...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048896
The paper develops a Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR (SOENKDSGE-VAR) model of the South African economy, characterised by incomplete pass-through of exchange rate changes, external habit formation, partial indexation of domestic prices and wages to past inflation, and staggered price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010737983
forecasting US inflation by mixing density forecasts from an autoregressive model and the Survey of Professional Forecasters. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048689
I investigate macro effects of higher bank capital requirements on the Norwegian economy and their use as a macroprudential policy instrument under Basel III. To this end, I develop a macroeconometric model where the capital adequacy ratio, lending rates, asset prices and credit interact with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010931034
-of-sample forecasting ability to examine the significance of each macro variable in explaining the stock returns behaviour. In addition, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010608280
A spatial error model is classified as a geostatistical model or a weight matrix model on the basis of the method of specification of spatial autocorrelation in the disturbance. Specification errors cannot be assumed to be absent, and the robustness of alternative specifications is useful for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010608299