In this paper, we analyze macro-financial linkages in the euro area by implementing an innovative factor-augmented probit model estimated using a large database. In particular, our model specification enables the identification of the leading influence of financial variables on euro area...

This study aims to investigate the channels through which international business cycles are transmitted to Turkish economy. Our analysis follows two steps: i) business cycle transmission is measured using Longest Common Subsequence (LCS) method, a pattern recognition algorithm that accounts for...

This paper investigates the differences between real-time and ex-post output gap estimates using a newly-constructed international real-time dataset over the period from 1973:Q1 to 2012:Q3. We extend the findings in Orphanides and van Norden (2002) for the United States that the use of ex-post...

This paper examines the relationship between real output and real credit at business-cycle frequencies in Greece. The Granger causality tests indicate that real credit is important to understanding future movements in real output, given the trade deficit ratio. The impulse response analysis...

Transition probabilities between four labor market states (full-time employment, part-time employment, unemployment and inactive) for three age groups (the young, mature and old) are calculated using monthly gross flow data for Australia from October 1997 to May 2012. We determine the responses...

We discuss the properties of business cycles in Romania between 1991 and 2011 using a wavelets based method. We compare it with the standard approaches in literature. We analyze the relationship between output and key macroeconomic variables in time and frequency. While in terms of comovement...