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Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: Neural networks vs. time series models

Claveria, Oscar; Torra, Salvador - In: Economic Modelling 36 (2014) C, pp. 220-228

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more … evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time series methods at a regional level … compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010729816

Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey

Kaya, Huseyin - In: Economic Modelling 33 (2013) C, pp. 1-7

In this study we investigate the yield curve forecasting performance of Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model (DNS), affine term … structure VAR model (ATSM VAR) and principal component model (PC) in Turkey. We also investigate the role of macroeconomic … variables in forecasting the yield curve. We have reached numbers of important results: 1—Macroeconomic variables are very …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048868

Income inequality dynamic measurement of Markov models: Application to some European countries

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Di Biase, Giuseppe; Manca, Raimondo - In: Economic Modelling 29 (2012) 5, pp. 1598-1602

In this paper we present a methodology for measuring income inequality dynamically within a Markov model of income evolution. The proposed methodology requires knowledge of the evolution of the population and the averages and medians of the incomes in a country and allows the computation of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010597500

Oil and economic development: Libya in the post-Gaddafi era

Ali, Issa; Harvie, Charles - In: Economic Modelling 32 (2013) C, pp. 273-285

Libya experienced traumatic political and economic upheaval during 2011 arising from an eight-month-long civil war that cost thousands of lives, resulted in major economic dysfunction, destroyed part of the country's infrastructure, almost halted oil production, the country's major source of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010664382

Assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy in Kenya: Evidence from a macroeconomic model

Were, Maureen; Nyamongo, Esman; Kamau, Anne W.; Sichei, … - In: Economic Modelling 37 (2014) C, pp. 193-201

This paper examines the effectiveness of monetary policy in Kenya based on policy simulations from a structural macroeconometric model. The analysis is conducted using the policy rate, i.e. the central bank rate (CBR) and the cash reserve ratio (CRR) with respect to the interest rate and bank...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010744013

A small macroeconometric model of the Nigerian economy

Olofin, S.O.; Olubusoye, O.E.; Mordi, C.N.O.; Salisu, A.A. - In: Economic Modelling 39 (2014) C, pp. 305-313

This study develops and uses for forecast a small-scale macro-econometric model of the Nigerian economy. The effects of three policy scenarios built around the assumptions of the changes that the Central Bank of Nigeria is likely to make to the Monetary Policy Rate are proposed and analyzed....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010781950

The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area

Gomes, S.; Jacquinot, P.; Pisani, M. - In: Economic Modelling 29 (2012) 5, pp. 1686-1714

We develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and Global Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions in the euro area and between the euro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010597485

An empirical investigation of causality between producers' price and consumers' price indices in Australia in frequency domain

Tiwari, Aviral Kumar - In: Economic Modelling 29 (2012) 5, pp. 1571-1578

The paper examines Granger-causality between the producers' and the consumers' price using Australian data within the frequency domain framework. For long run relation, the Johansen and Juselius (1990) maximum likelihood approach to cointegration was utilized. The test is also supplemented by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010597525

A DSGE-VAR model for forecasting key South African macroeconomic variables

Gupta, Rangan; Steinbach, Rudi - In: Economic Modelling 33 (2013) C, pp. 19-33

The paper develops a Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR (SOENKDSGE-VAR) model of the South African economy … SOENKDSGE-VAR model is compared with an independently estimated DSGE model, the classical VAR and six alternative BVAR models …, we find that, barring the BVAR model based on the SSVS prior on both VAR coefficients and the error covariance, the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010737983

Forecasting exchange rates using panel model and model averaging

Garratt, Anthony; Mise, Emi - In: Economic Modelling 37 (2014) C, pp. 32-40

We propose to produce accurate point and interval forecasts of exchange rates by combining a number of well known fundamental based panel models. Combination of each model utilizes a set of weights computed using a linear mixture of experts's framework, where weights are determined by log scores...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010743991