This paper assesses if a Bayesian VAR with a Dornbusch prior outperforms the random walk model in predicting real exchange rates. Our main contributions are twofold. First, from a methodological point of view we apply an innovative framework to estimate structural Bayesian VAR models. Second, we...

This paper introduces a formal method of combining expert and model density forecasts when the sample of past forecasts is unavailable. It works directly with the expert forecast density and endogenously delivers weights for forecast combination, relying on probability rules only. The empirical...

This paper presents a two-country model linking Poland and the euro area and applies it for assessment of heterogeneity across these two regions. Overall, our results can be seen as rather inconclusive about the differences in parameters describing agents' decision-making in Poland and in the...

This paper uses a multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model to illustrate real convergence processes in a small open catching-up economy. Our results indicate that even if the convergence is driven by smoothly evolving processes, the dynamic adjustments of key macrovariables can be far...