Usually, a monetary union is not considered feasible between countries if the correlations of shocks are positive but weak. This may not be so if the country with the larger output gap converges to full-employment equilibrium faster than the country with the smaller gap. We argue that common...

This paper uses a unique monthly data set that covers the overall credit card usage in a small-open economy, Turkey, to investigate a possible credit channel of monetary policy transmission through credit cards. A reduced-form vector autoregression analysis is employed, where the forecast error...

This study is among the first to examine the price, volatility and covariance dynamics between securitized real estate spot and futures markets. It provides a distinctive and yet complementary perspective on the predictability of real estate spot return and spot volatility based on the...

This paper revisits the link between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomy in the context of a net oil exporting country, Canada. Results obtained from alternative Structural VAR models suggest that while shocks to oil price level do not affect the aggregate level of output, the oil price...

This study is an attempt to test the long run relationship between international tourism and economic growth of Pakistan by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models over the period of 1972 to 2011. The initial results show that the causality runs from tourism to economic growth....

This paper presents the causal relationships between futures and spot prices of six metal and agriculture commodities in Chinese commodity market, using GC test, frequency domain approach proposed by Brietung and Candelon (2006) and Garbade–Silber (G–S) Model. Frequency domain approach...

This study develops comprehensive full-sector macro-econometric models for the South African economy with the aim of explaining and providing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy changes in the country. The models are applied to test the effectiveness of fiscal policy actions in an...

Several governments in sub-Saharan Africa have embarked on various market reforms to improve commodity market performance. However, the success of such market reforms depends partly on the strength of the transmission of price signals between spatially separated markets and between different...

The paper presents a new approach to exchange rate modelling that augments the CHEER model with a sovereign credit default risk as perceived by financial investors making their decisions. In the cointegrated VAR system with nine variables comprised of the short- and long-term interest rates in...

In this paper we develop an open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model—the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM)—is closely related to studies published by Carabenciov...