Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a widely used tool for assessing financial market risk. In practice, the estimation of liquidity extreme risk by VaR generally uses models assuming independence of bid–ask spreads. However, bid–ask spreads tend to occur in clusters with time dependency, particularly...

We examine both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of South African stock return using macroeconomic variables. We base our analysis on a predictive regression framework, using monthly data covering the in-sample period between 1990:01 and 1996:12, and the out-of sample period commencing...

We develop a methodology of parametric modeling of time series dynamics when the underlying loss function is linear-exponential (Linex). We propose to directly model the dynamics of the conditional expectation that determines the optimal predictor. The procedure hinges on the exponential quasi...

In this paper, we examine the predictive ability, both in-sample and the out-of-sample, for South African stock returns using a number of financial variables, based on monthly data with an in-sample period covering 1990:01 to 1996:12 and the out-of-sample period of 1997:01 to 2010:04. We use the...

This study examines latent shifts in the conditional volatility and correlation for the U.S. stock and T-bond data using the two-state Markov-switching range-based volatility and correlation models. This paper comes up with clear evidence of volatility regime-switching in stock indices and...

This study constructs a variety of GARCH models with the consideration of the generalized error distribution to analyze the relationship between the cloud cover and stock returns in Taiwan in the whole sample period (1986 to 2007) and in the two sub-sample periods (1986 to 1996 and 1997 to...

In order to shed new light on the influence of volume and economic fundamentals on the long-run volatility of the Chinese stock market we follow the methodology introduced by Engle et al. (2009) and Engle and Rangel (2008) to account for the effects of macro fundamentals, and augment it with...

The relationship between stock market and economic growth is tested for Portugal (1993–2011), which is a small open economy dependent on bank financing. The relationship between economic growth and bank financing is also appraised. Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling, Granger causality,...

I investigate macro effects of higher bank capital requirements on the Norwegian economy and their use as a macroprudential policy instrument under Basel III. To this end, I develop a macroeconometric model where the capital adequacy ratio, lending rates, asset prices and credit interact with...

Opting for structural or reduced form estimation is often hard to justify if one wants to both learn about the structure of the economy and obtain accurate predictions. In this paper, we show that using both structural and reduced form estimates simultaneously can lead to more accurate policy...