Long-term forecasts and scenario analysis should be based on macroeconometric models. The core of long-term models is extended by introducing production functions generating potential output. Their specification includes total factor productivity (TFP) being representative of technological...

I investigate macro effects of higher bank capital requirements on the Norwegian economy and their use as a macroprudential policy instrument under Basel III. To this end, I develop a macroeconometric model where the capital adequacy ratio, lending rates, asset prices and credit interact with...

Forecasting poverty in the future is mostly a matter of forecasting economic growth. The objective of the study is to examine the inter-temporal link between growth and poverty in Pakistan, over the next 25years period i.e., from the years 2011 to 2035. The generalized version of variance...

The study provides evidence in favor of the price range as a proxy estimator of volatility in financial time series, in the cases that either intra-day datasets are unavailable or they are available at a low sampling frequency.

We examine both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of South African stock return using macroeconomic variables. We base our analysis on a predictive regression framework, using monthly data covering the in-sample period between 1990:01 and 1996:12, and the out-of sample period commencing...

A spatial error model is classified as a geostatistical model or a weight matrix model on the basis of the method of specification of spatial autocorrelation in the disturbance. Specification errors cannot be assumed to be absent, and the robustness of alternative specifications is useful for...

Although many studies on the directional accuracy of forecasts by international organizations and professional forecasters have been scrutinized, little attention has been paid to forecasts by business leaders. In order to address this gap, we use directional tests to investigate whether...

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourism demand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling...

It has been well documented that the consensus forecast from surveys of professional forecasters shows a bias that varies over time. In this paper, we examine whether this bias may be due to forecasters having an asymmetric loss function. In contrast to previous research, we account for the time...

The paper develops a Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR (SOENKDSGE-VAR) model of the South African economy, characterised by incomplete pass-through of exchange rate changes, external habit formation, partial indexation of domestic prices and wages to past inflation, and staggered price...