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The initial release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in early 2001 pointed to the very real possibility that the U.S. economy was teetering on the brink of recession. This article quantifies the statistical ability of the CFNAI to act as an early warning indicator of economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005373061
Our case study of the 1995 economic slowdown reveals that part of the widespread deterioration in economic indicators was predictable in light of 1994 monetary policy actions. But it was also partly unanticipated due to a modest adverse supply shock in the first quarter of 1995.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005373132
This article compares movements in the federal funds rate from 1987 through 1997 with predictions from the federal funds market and a Taylor rule using unemployment and core CPI data. Although a Taylor rule using revised data does about as well as the futures market predictions, the best...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005713080
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005499109