Economics places a high premium on completeness of explanation. Typical general-equilibrium accounts of economic phenomena are preferred to partial equilibrium accounts on the ground that important interactions are necessarily omitted in the latter. A similar preference for microfoundational...

Econometricians tend to hold simultaneously two views in tension with each other: an apparent anti-realism that holds that all models are false and at best useful constructs or approximations to true models and an apparent realism that models are to be judged by their success at capturing an...

The transcript of a panel discussion marking the fiftieth anniversary of John Muth's “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements” (Econometrica 1961). The panel consists of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion is...

Modern empirical macroeconomic models, known as structural auto-regressions (SVARs) are dynamic models that typically claim to represent a causal order among contemporaneously valued variables and to merely represent non-structural (reduced-form) co-occurence between lagged variables and...

Although Cournot's mathematical economics was generally neglected until the mid-1870s, he was taken up and carefully studied by the Scientific Club of Cambridge, Massachusetts even before his “discovery” by Walras and Jevons. The episode is reconstructed from fragmentary manuscripts of the...

Modern growth theory derives mostly from Robert Solow's “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth” (1956). Solow's own interpretation locates the origins of his “Contribution” in his view that the growth model of Roy Harrod implied a tendency toward progressive collapse of the...