After two decades of successfully restoring price stability in much of the world economy, central banks begin the next millennium facing a new set of challenges. One key task is how to conduct monetary policy in an era of price stability. Clearly, policymakers would like inflation to remain...

Despite the low inflation of recent years, some observers have wondered whether rapid gains in U.S. asset prices foreshadow rising inflationary pressures. Would U.S. monetary policy be improved if Federal Reserve policymakers reacted systematically to changes in the prices of widely held assets...

Many analysts have advocated using commodity prices as a guide for monetary policy. A necessary condition is that changes in commodity prices are good predictors of future aggregate price changes. This paper examines that proposition. It shows that while commodity prices can help produce more...

The Neal Resolution, now in Congress, would make price stability the dominant goal of monetary policy. The first of these two articles holds that policymakers’ discretion over the price level increases political conflict. Further, it argues that removing this discretion would restore the...

The Neal Resolution, now in Congress, would make price stability the dominant goal of monetary policy. The first of these two articles holds that policymakers’ discretion over the price level increases political conflict. Further, it argues that removing this discretion would restore the...

Option prices can be used to infer the level of uncertainty about future asset prices. The first two parts of this article explain such measures (implied volatility) and how they can differ from the market's true expectation of uncertainty. The third then estimates the implied volatility of...