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Predicting real growth using the yield curve

Haubrich, Joseph G.; Dombrosky, Ann M. - In: Economic Review (1996) Q I, pp. 26-35

A study using out-of-sample regressions to determine how well the 10-year, 3-month yield spread predicts future real GDP growth. The author finds that although the yield curve is a good predictor over the entire 30-year sample period, it has become much less accurate over the last decade.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360773

Productivity and the term structure

Haubrich, Joseph G. - In: Economic Review (2000) Q IV, pp. 2-9

The recent record-setting economic expansion and the accompanying record-setting bull market in stocks are often attributed to Federal Reserve interest rate policy and increased productivity. But if interest rates behave differently when productivity changes, interest rate policy may need to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360795

Term structure economics from A to B

Haubrich, Joseph G. - In: Economic Review (1999) Q III, pp. 2-9

The interest rates for bonds of different maturities are related, but the interplay of factors that influence these rates is not easy to tease apart. The author leads the reader through the development of a model of the term structure of interest rates, then works with the model to provide some...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360805

Evaluating money market conditions: remarks to the Southern California chapter of the Bank Administration Institute, Pasadena, California, Sept. 12, 1973

Balles, John J. - In: Economic Review (1973) Sep, pp. 3-11

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352289

Problems of inflation and high interest rates: testimony before Committee on Banking and Currency, U.S. House of Representatives, July 17, 1974

Balles, John J. - In: Economic Review (1974) Sep, pp. 3-11

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352431

The early history of the real/nominal interest rate relationship

Humphrey, Thomas M. - In: Economic Review (1983) May, pp. 2-10

An abstract for this article is not available.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063807

Can the central bank peg real interest rates? : a survey of classical and neoclassical opinion

Humphrey, Thomas M. - In: Economic Review (1983) Sep, pp. 12-21

An abstract for this article is not available.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063816

The interest cost-push controversy

Humphrey, Thomas M. - In: Economic Review (1979) Jan, pp. 3-10

An abstract for this article is not available

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063935

Bank diversification: laws and fallacies of large numbers

Haubrich, Joseph G. - In: Economic Review (1998) Q II, pp. 2-9

Conventional wisdom on bank diversification confuses risk with failure. This article clarifies the distinction and … shows how increasing bank size may increase bank risk, even though it lessens the probability of failure and lowers the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360754

Sharing with a risk-neutral agent

Haubrich, Joseph G. - In: Economic Review (2001) Q I, pp. 2-8

In the standard solution to the principal–agent problem, a risk-neutral agent bears all the risk. The author shows that …, in fact, multiple solutions exist, and often the risk-neutral agent is not the sole bearer of risk. As risk aversion … approaches zero, the unique risk-averse solution converges to the risk-neutral solution, wherein the agent bears the least amount …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707864