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Turn, turn, turn: Predicting turning points in economic activity

Negro, Marco Del - In: Economic Review (2001) Q2, pp. 1-12

forecasting? ; The author first discusses the definition of turning points and describes different approaches to turning point … forecasting, along with their relative advantages and disadvantages. Next, the article assesses the performance of the Atlanta Fed … Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model in terms of forecasting turning points relative to a well-known alternative, the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361145

Decoupled and resilient? The changing role of emerging market economies in an interconnected world

Buelens, Ch. - In: Economic Review (2013) II, pp. 23-39

For the last two or three decades, the global economy has been going through an extraordinary transition phase. This period has been marked by stronger integration among economies, fuelled by falling trade and communication costs, but above all by the rising prominence of emerging market and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272837

Procyclical real wages under nominal-wage contracts with productivity variations

Hoehn, James G. - In: Economic Review (1988) Q IV, pp. 11-23

A modification of existing sticky-wage models to account for the observed cyclical behavior of real wages by means of a model that introduces productivity factors into nominal-wage contracts.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360719

Why we don't know whether money causes output

Carlstrom, Charles T.; Gamber, Edward N. - In: Economic Review (1989) Q III, pp. 27-39

An examination of the commonly accepted positive correlation between money and real output, including a review of several models of business cycles and an explanation of how money can be neutral and yet still appear to affect real output.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360736

Real business cycle theory: a guide, an evaluation, and new direction

Stockman, Alan C. - In: Economic Review (1988) Q IV, pp. 24-47

An evaluation of the state of real business cycle theory, with an outline of useful directions for further research and a discussion of economic policy implications.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360783

Inventories and the business cycle: an overview

Fitzgerald, Terry J. - In: Economic Review (1997) Q III, pp. 11-22

A review of research on the relationship between inventory investment and business cycle fluctuations, focusing on the developments of the last 15 years. A central issue in the literature, the relative importance of demand and supply shocks as sources of fluctuations, continues to be debated.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360803

Real business cycles

Rush, Mark - In: Economic Review (1987) Feb, pp. 20-32

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005373350

Recent evidence on the muted inventory cycle

Filardo, Andrew J. - In: Economic Review (1995) Q II, pp. 27-43

Inventories play an important role in business cycles. Inventory build-ups add momentum to the economy during expansions, while inventory liquidations sap economic strength during recessions. In addition, because inventory fluctuations are notoriously difficult to predict, they present...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005373378

Cyclical implications of the declining manufacturing employment share

Filardo, Andrew J. - In: Economic Review (1997) Q II, pp. 63-87

Over the last 35 years, the U.S. economy has created service sector jobs at a faster pace than manufacturing sector jobs. Not only has this trend led to a significant shift in the composition of the labor force from manufacturing to services, but it has also fundamentally changed the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005373458

Is a recession inevitable this year?

Higgins, Bryon - In: Economic Review (1988) Jan, pp. 3-16

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005373462

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