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Turn, turn, turn: Predicting turning points in economic activity

Negro, Marco Del - In: Economic Review (2001) Q2, pp. 1-12

forecasting? ; The author first discusses the definition of turning points and describes different approaches to turning point … forecasting, along with their relative advantages and disadvantages. Next, the article assesses the performance of the Atlanta Fed … Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model in terms of forecasting turning points relative to a well-known alternative, the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361145

Decoupled and resilient? The changing role of emerging market economies in an interconnected world

Buelens, Ch. - In: Economic Review (2013) II, pp. 23-39

For the last two or three decades, the global economy has been going through an extraordinary transition phase. This period has been marked by stronger integration among economies, fuelled by falling trade and communication costs, but above all by the rising prominence of emerging market and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272837

The boom and bust in information technology investment

Doms, Mark C. - In: Economic Review (2004), pp. 19-34

The growth rate of business investment in information technology boomed in the 1990s and 2000 before plunging in 2001. This boom and bust raises some natural questions: what were the reasons for the accentuated swings in growth rates, and, more importantly, what do those reasons portend for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352245

Evaluating non-structural measures of the business cycle

Cogley, Timothy - In: Economic Review (1997), pp. 3-21

This paper evaluates a number of non-structural measures of the business cycle. It adopts a structural definition of the cycle, interprets non-structural measures as noisy approximations, and seeks a proxy that is reliable across a variety of plausible trend-cycle structures. The results favor a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352261

The "new" theory of the business cycle: are recessions just random?

Butler, Larry - In: Economic Review (1977) Spr, pp. 6-13

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352282

Unemployment, unused capacity and the business cycle

Butler, Larry - In: Economic Review (1977) Spr, pp. 46-52

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352308

Financial intermediation, monetary policy, and equilibrium business cycles

Walsh, Carl E.; Hartley, Peter R. - In: Economic Review (1988) Fall, pp. 19-28

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352326

Forecasting industrial production using models with business cycle asymmetry

Huh, Chan - In: Economic Review (1998), pp. 29-41

This paper exploits an observed business cycle asymmetry, namely, a systematic shift in the dynamic relationship between output growth and an index for financial market conditions across expansionary and contractionary periods, to forecast monthly growth in industrial production. A bivariate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352338

Adaptive forecasts, hysteresis, and endogenous fluctuations

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - In: Economic Review (1993), pp. 3-13

This paper considers fluctuations and policy in an economic model with multiple steady states due to a production externality. In the absence of policy changes, the driving forces generating fluctuations are exogenous random productivity shocks. However, because there are multiple steady states,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352450

Cyclical unemployment and employment: effects of labor force entry and exit

Keeley, Michael C. - In: Economic Review (1984) Sum, pp. 5-25

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352475

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