This paper exploits an observed business cycle asymmetry, namely, a systematic shift in the dynamic relationship between output growth and an index for financial market conditions across expansionary and contractionary periods, to forecast monthly growth in industrial production. A bivariate...

This paper considers fluctuations and policy in an economic model with multiple steady states due to a production externality. In the absence of policy changes, the driving forces generating fluctuations are exogenous random productivity shocks. However, because there are multiple steady states,...

Policy and investment decisions are made with an eye toward future economic conditions, and an econometric model that can correctly forecast directional changes in the business cycle would be a boon to policymakers, the business community, and the general public. This article provides some...

While many empirical economists claim that energy price shocks drive U.S. business cycles, economists using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models believe that business cycles are caused mainly by productivity shocks. ; The authors reconcile the two views by constructing a DSGE...

In some ways, the recession of 2001 and the recovery that followed it were unique: During the recession, the contraction in measured output was driven almost entirely by a retrenchment in business capital spending while consumer spending and residential investment remained positive. And the...

An exploration of the link between changes in the efficiency of the financial system and business cycle fluctuations.

Development of rational expectations models of the business cycle has been the central issue in macroeconomics over the last 15 years. The postulate that expectations are rational imposes considerable discipline on business cycle analysis. In this essay we review the current literature on...

This article examines the stochastic properties of aggregate macroeconomic time series from the standpoint of fractionally integrated models, focusing on the persistence of economic shocks. The authors develop a simple macroeconomic model that exhibits long-range dependence, a consequence of...