Sticky price monetary models of exchange rates, while reasonable theoretically, have been disappointing empirically. Out-of-sample predictions have been little or no better than those from a naive model of no change. The most likely reason is that shocks to the market's expectation of the future...

Though checks' popularity is now waning in favor of electronic payments, checks were, for much of the twentieth century, the most widely used noncash payment method in the United States. How did such a relatively inefficient form of payment become so dominant? This article traces the historical...

The article examines to what extent the recovery of the global economy could gain support from a more balanced growth of global demand than in the past. Despite the gradual recovery of the global economy, it remains highly uncertain when – or even whether – growth can return to the often...

When it was adopted in 1997 the stability and growth pact was considered as one of the cornerstones of the European monetary union. However, against the background of the economic downturn starting at the turn of the century, this perception changed and some observers criticised the pact for...

The total macroeconomic costs of the payment instruments used in the points of sale can be estimated to be 2.034 million euros, or 0.74 p.c. of Belgian GDP in 2003. The payment costs arising from cash were 0.58 p.c. of GDP, compared to 0.11 p.c. for debit cards, 0.04 p.c. for credit cards and...

This article evaluates the ability of the yield spread to forecast real economic activity in 11 industrial countries. The first section of this article defines the yield spread and explains why the spread may be a useful predictor of real economic activity. The second section describes the data...

Analysts often use financial variables to help predict real activity and inflation. One of the most popular of these variables is the spread between yields on long-term and short-term government instruments, also known as the yield spread. Researchers have shown the spread is a good predictor of...