Sticky price monetary models of exchange rates, while reasonable theoretically, have been disappointing empirically. Out-of-sample predictions have been little or no better than those from a naive model of no change. The most likely reason is that shocks to the market's expectation of the future...

Though checks' popularity is now waning in favor of electronic payments, checks were, for much of the twentieth century, the most widely used noncash payment method in the United States. How did such a relatively inefficient form of payment become so dominant? This article traces the historical...

When it was adopted in 1997 the stability and growth pact was considered as one of the cornerstones of the European monetary union. However, against the background of the economic downturn starting at the turn of the century, this perception changed and some observers criticised the pact for...

The total macroeconomic costs of the payment instruments used in the points of sale can be estimated to be 2.034 million euros, or 0.74 p.c. of Belgian GDP in 2003. The payment costs arising from cash were 0.58 p.c. of GDP, compared to 0.11 p.c. for debit cards, 0.04 p.c. for credit cards and...

The article examines to what extent the recovery of the global economy could gain support from a more balanced growth of global demand than in the past. Despite the gradual recovery of the global economy, it remains highly uncertain when – or even whether – growth can return to the often...

This study examines the short-run dynamic relationships between nonborrowed reserves, the federal funds rate, and transaction accounts using daily data from 1979 through 1982. Separate models are estimated for each day of the week, and simulation experiments are performed. The results suggest...

A study using out-of-sample regressions to determine how well the 10-year, 3-month yield spread predicts future real GDP growth. The author finds that although the yield curve is a good predictor over the entire 30-year sample period, it has become much less accurate over the last decade.

The recent record-setting economic expansion and the accompanying record-setting bull market in stocks are often attributed to Federal Reserve interest rate policy and increased productivity. But if interest rates behave differently when productivity changes, interest rate policy may need to...

The interest rates for bonds of different maturities are related, but the interplay of factors that influence these rates is not easy to tease apart. The author leads the reader through the development of a model of the term structure of interest rates, then works with the model to provide some...