The nature of the business cycle, particularly in the United States, has changed dramatically over the past several decades. In the 1970s and early 1980s, the U.S. economy often whipsawed up and down. Since then, real economic activity stabilized considerably, entering a period economists call...

Despite the apparent risk that financial stress poses to the real economy, the relationship between financial stress and economic activity is complex and not well understood. The experience of the United States and other countries has shown that businesses and households often pull back on new...

After rising substantially during the Great Recession, the U.S. federal budget deficit has narrowed the past few years. While policy reforms and cyclical economic recovery have certainly contributed to this improvement, an array of temporary factors such as Federal Reserve remittances, dividends...