Average inflation in the euro area has remained relatively stable since the onset of the current economic and financial crisis. Given the extent and length of the crisis, this observation might seem surprising in that it suggests that the traditional cyclical behaviour of inflation has weakened...

The article assesses the usefulness of indicators taken from surveys carried out by the National Bank of Belgium for predicting Belgian GDP and other important quarterly macroeconomic aggregates. To this end, the authors use the recently created BREL now-casting platform that consists of...

While both the creation of the Economic and Monetary Union in 1999 and the introduction of the euro banknotes and coins in January 2002 actually went remarkably smooth, the introduction of the euro gave rise to a very lively debate regarding its impact on inflation. Indeed, the vast majority of...

The article deals with inflation dynamics in Belgium, and in particular the degree of inflation persistence. It also presents a historical perspective in order to determine whether the statistical properties of the inflation process have changed over time. The analysis revealed significant...

The business survey indicator is one of the most valuable statistics that the Bank publishes every month. Its reputation is due to the reliability it has demonstrated over several decades in reflecting the pattern of economic activity in the country and in the euro area every month. The...

This article first reviews the main determinants of bank loans’ interest rates and offers a brief discussion of the impact of capital requirements on interest rate margins. Next, it presents some empirical evidence, first, on the pass-through of the central bank rate to market rates and,...

A time series methodology is used to understand the Ohio economy by assessing various indicators of economic activity in Ohio. These can be identified and quantified through simple methods applicable to other regional economies, as well.

A study using out-of-sample regressions to determine how well the 10-year, 3-month yield spread predicts future real GDP growth. The author finds that although the yield curve is a good predictor over the entire 30-year sample period, it has become much less accurate over the last decade.