The only outcome consistent with the Fisher equation holding and the FOMC’s zero interest rate policy is that the “long run” is considerably longer than 4.5 years.

In order to maintain its credibility, however, the FOMC will have to take actions consistent with achieving its stated inflation objective.

The behavior of term OIS rates following the three instances of FOMC verbal guidance provides no support for the efficacy of the FOMC’s forward guidance monetary policy.

Our approach offers several advantages over LSAPs as a financial mechanism to enhance forward guidance.

The enormous quantity of excess reserves can create an even greater expansion in the money supply.>

The economy is too complex to be summarized by a single rule. Economies are constantly changing in ways difficult to explain after the fact and nearly impossible to predict. Consequently, policymakers seem destined to rely on discretion rather than rules.

If investment spending is sufficiently insensitive to interest rate changes and the effect of Fed actions on interest rates is sufficiently weak, the net effect of the persistent zero interest rate policy could be negative.

The economy is too complex to be summarized by a single rule. Economies are constantly changing in ways difficult to explain after the fact and nearly impossible to predict. Consequently, policymakers seem destined to rely on discretion rather than rules.