Inflation expectations formed in the mid-2000s weren’t very accurate—in large part because of the shocks from the recession and financial crisis.

The government increased payments to individuals without reducing spending elsewhere in the budget.

One common threshold is that labor market conditions are improving when weekly unemployment claims fall below 400,000.

The spot prices of West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil recently diverged. If this divergence persists, economists and energy analysts may want to focus on Brent prices when predicting the level of gasoline prices.

Before 2000, the tax burden shifted from the lowest 80% of earners to the highest 20%; since 2000, the burden has shrunk for all groups, but more so for the highest earners.

Initial claims may now be useful for forecasting employment growth during periods of increasing economic activity.>

Although the St. Louis Financial Stress Index suggests the level of financial stress in the markets has declined significantly since September 2008, the stress level remains modestly higher than average.

Economists focus on certain indicators that might signal when one business expansion ends and the next one begins.

"Although the current recession may.. be the longest in the postwar period, it is by no means certain that it will be the deepest, but it's increasingly looking that way."

Most forecasters think the surprise first-quarter contraction is not a harbinger of another recession, but history suggests caution.