The existence of a long swing may be explained and its length can be computed with the aid of a simple 'Goodwinesque' model, built on the original monetary theory of Hawtrey. The mathematical, historical and human aspects of a long swing of this sort are discussed.

A closed dynamic Leontief model is implemented for the Business, Government and Household sectors of the Hungarian and the US economies at the end of the past century. It is built on rough estimates of its flow and stock coefficients. The growth rate and the length and pattern of the four most...